Since late last year, the international crude oil in the resonance effect of the increased supply and geopolitical factor continued decline. NYMEX crude oil index this year, the minimum detection to $ 46.96 / bbl, the next target is $ 40.11 in February 2009 hit / barrel. But the latter is when the global financial crisis hit in 2008, the current financial environment is still not so crude slipped so far. And, as oil prices continued downward, including the United States, including the high cost of oil shale and oil pressure is facing with cuts, which produces medium-term support of the international oil prices. We judge, the international crude oil $ 45 / barrel to become greater probability of medium-term bottom.
Late last year, the domestic coal chemical production release of oil Propylene prices have a greater impact. But the future of coal chemical industry development space will be limited. The fourth quarter of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “western region encouraged industry directory”, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai provinces had six are “encouraged” and “annual output of 500,000 tons of coal by methanol to olefins project “all be canceled, which means that the future of these projects will no longer enjoy a 15% corporate income tax, which will be the future development of coal chemical industry have a greater inhibitory effect
Currently, Dalian City, China, plastic spot on the 1505 contract premium offer mainstream 300-600 yuan / ton, in the role of downstream demand replenishment, etc., the spot on the strong move up the role of futures continue to appear. Currently 1505 550 000 contract positions in hand, while the exchange warehouse receipts only 34 hands. If two barrels of oil continue very price outlook, in effect, driven by the strong side spot, futures will be in a difficult or easy to rise situation.